Evidence of fertility decline in Karachi.

Demographic transition in Pakistan produced an annual growth rate of over 4% in urban areas as compared to 3% for Pakistan as a whole with lower mortality and higher marital fertility in urban areas and rural to urban migration. Primarily, the data of the project "Metropolitan Women's Productive Choices" were utilized along with findings of the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS) of 1984, the Pakistan Fertility Survey of 1975, and the Population, Labour Force Migration Survey of 1979. Marriage and reproductive histories and contraceptive use information were collected for 680 working and 320 non-working women in Karachi aged 15-49. Total fertility was lower in this sample than reported in the PCPS. In the 1960s the total fertility rate was around 6.5/1000 women. Women's age at marriage rose from 18.5 years in 1961 to 21.5 years in 1981 reducing total fertility rates. In the last 5 years and in the 5-year period before that marital fertility declined as a result of the decline of breast-feeding in urban areas. In Karachi breast-feeding averaged 11 months (15 months in 1979 for Pakistan), and 16% of children were not breast-fed at all. The shortening of breast- feeding reduces the period of post-partum amenorrhea, thus increasing marital fertility. However, this gain is offset by contraceptive use averaging 40% in Karachi among ever-married women vs. 10% nationally. Contraceptive use in Karachi is probably high enough to counteract lower breast-feeding and lead to lower fertility. 50% of women with 2 living sons or 2 living daughters use contraceptives indicating that women in Karachi want 2 children of each gender at most. Those wanting to space births can be motivated to use contraceptives. The gender composition of families influences reproductive behavior in Pakistan. Desire for a least 1 son persists even when mothers have 4 daughters, and for 1 daughter when there are 5 sons. These findings provide evidence that fertility in Karachi has been falling in the recent past more than in the rest of the country. This is the consequence of higher age at marriage of women and higher contraceptive use despite the shorter length of breast-feeding. Smaller family size may also become a trend as a result of higher educational levels and lower infant mortality in Karachi.